The most populous state in America is on the verge of the most unpredictable gubernatorial election in a generation — and the outcome will carry political consequences that extend far beyond California’s borders.
As ballots continue to be counted from California’s June 3 primary, two candidates have emerged as the likely finalists for the November general election: Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and tech entrepreneur endorsed by President Donald Trump, and Democrat Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services who served under President Joe Biden. The two are neck-and-neck in early returns, with each drawing approximately 26% to 27% of the vote in the state’s jungle primary, in which all candidates from all parties compete on a single ballot and the top two finishers advance — regardless of party.
The third major contender, billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer, who pumped more than $200 million into his campaign — a sum that exceeds what Meg Whitman spent losing to Jerry Brown in 2010 — appears to have fallen short in his bid to force a three-way contest into November. The remaining vote may not change that outcome. If the Hilton-Becerra matchup holds, California is set for a November showdown that pits an unapologetic MAGA conservative against a veteran Democratic institutionalist — in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011.
The stakes for the country are enormous. California is not just a state. It is the world’s fifth-largest economy, a laboratory for progressive policy, and — in the Trump era — the most visible counterweight to federal conservative governance. Whoever occupies the governor’s mansion in Sacramento starting in January 2027 will be a major national political figure.
Why This Race Is Not a Foregone Conclusion
Many political observers outside California may be inclined to dismiss this race. California went for the Democratic presidential nominee by millions of votes in 2024. Democrats control every statewide constitutional office, both U.S. Senate seats, and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. How could a Republican — especially one as Trump-aligned as Steve Hilton — be remotely competitive?
The answer lies in a perfect storm of circumstances unique to this moment.
First, term limits have forced out Gavin Newsom, one of the most nationally prominent Democratic governors in the country. Newsom’s departure removes the incumbent advantage that has protected Democrats in California for over a decade, opening the race to a chaotic field that, at one point, included more than a dozen credible candidates.
Second, California is facing genuine, serious crises that have eroded public confidence in Democratic governance. Homelessness has reached crisis proportions in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and other major cities. Housing costs have made California unaffordable for millions of working- and middle-class families. Crime remains a politically charged issue. The state’s high income taxes and regulatory burden have driven some businesses and high-income earners out of state. Against this backdrop, the Democratic brand — despite its structural advantages — carries real vulnerabilities.
Third, California’s voter turnout in this primary was shockingly low. With just over 23% of registered voters casting ballots — compared to 47% in the 2016 presidential primary and 57% in the historic 2008 primary — the electorate that will determine November’s general election matchup has been chosen by a small, motivated, and ideologically engaged slice of the California electorate. Low turnout primaries can produce results that do not reflect broader public opinion.
Who Is Steve Hilton?
Steve Hilton is not a conventional California Republican, and that may be his greatest political asset.
Born in England, Hilton came to the United States after a career in British politics, including a stint as a senior advisor to Prime Minister David Cameron. He settled in Silicon Valley, built a career in the tech industry, and eventually became a prominent host on Fox News, where his program focused on populist economic issues. He has described himself as a “practical radical” — someone interested in disrupting entrenched systems rather than defending the status quo.
His policy platform for California is aggressive. He has vowed to eliminate the state income tax — a proposal that economists largely regard as mathematically impossible without catastrophic cuts to public services, but which resonates with Californians exhausted by some of the highest tax burdens in the nation. He has also promised to slash environmental regulations, boost oil and gas production, and take a dramatically different approach to the state’s homelessness crisis, including a controversial proposal to mandate treatment for homeless individuals with mental illness or drug addiction.
Trump’s endorsement of Hilton is both a blessing and a complication in a state where the president lost by millions of votes in 2024. It rallied California’s conservative base — enough to get Hilton into the top two — but it may also be his ceiling. The challenge for Hilton is to build beyond the Republican base to attract the independents and moderate Democrats he will need to win a statewide race in November.
His campaign’s confidence, at least for now, is notable. “What we’re really watching is the gap between me and the third place candidate,” Hilton told CNN on primary night. “As long as that gap stays roughly where it is, Californians will have a choice for change.”
Who Is Xavier Becerra?
Xavier Becerra brings a very different kind of profile — one built on decades of public service rather than media celebrity.
A Stanford Law School graduate, Becerra served 12 terms in the U.S. House of Representatives before becoming California’s Attorney General in 2017, a position from which he became one of the most visible opponents of the Trump administration’s first-term policies, filing dozens of lawsuits against federal actions on immigration, healthcare, environmental regulations, and more. In 2021, President Biden appointed him Secretary of Health and Human Services, where he oversaw the tail end of the COVID-19 pandemic response.
Becerra entered the governor’s race relatively late and was not initially considered the frontrunner. His rise to the top of the primary field reflects, in part, his name recognition from his time as California AG, as well as consolidation of the Democratic establishment’s support as the primary field narrowed.
His campaign is centered on defending California’s progressive achievements — its climate policies, its sanctuary state protections, its Medicaid expansion — while arguing that he has the experience and credibility to address the state’s most pressing challenges. He has been particularly aggressive in responding to Trump, drawing a sharp contrast between his vision of California governance and the federal administration’s direction.
When Trump accused California Democrats of trying to “steal” the primary election as mail ballots continued to be counted, Becerra fired back sharply on social media: “Donald Trump lost the 2020 election. He lost California by millions of votes in the 2024 election, and now he’s trying to undermine confidence in our elections because he’s a repeat loser here. Sorry Donald, the voters decide who leads California. Not you.”
That kind of combative posture may play well with Democratic primary voters, but November will require him to appeal beyond the base.
The November Showdown: What to Watch
The Hilton-Becerra general election race will test several of the most important questions in American politics right now.
Can a Trump-aligned Republican win in a deep-blue state by running on kitchen-table issues — housing, homelessness, crime, and taxes — rather than culture war battles? Can Democrats hold their structural advantage when they cannot rely on an incumbent and when the party’s governance record in the state’s major cities is genuinely vulnerable?
Trump’s response to the ongoing vote count — and his unfounded claims about election fraud — may prove politically counterproductive, even with Republican voters. It risks energizing Democrats and independents who might otherwise sit out the general election, and it hands Becerra and the Democratic Party a narrative about threats to democratic norms that has proven powerful in recent elections.
Meanwhile, the Steyer campaign’s collapse — despite a historically massive advertising spend — reinforces a lesson that California Democratic politics has taught before: money is necessary but not sufficient. Voters, even in a low-turnout primary, want something more than a well-funded resume.
Final results from California’s primary must be reported to the Secretary of State by July 3, 2026. Until then, the exact contours of the November race remain slightly uncertain. But the broad outlines are clear: California is about to have the most competitive governor’s race in more than a decade, and the nation will be watching.